Is there really an HVAC technician shortage? What the 2026 data says

Is there really an HVAC technician shortage?

The cleanest evidence is the federal outlook. In the words of the BLS Occupational Outlook Handbook, “Employment of heating, air conditioning, and refrigeration mechanics and installers is projected to grow 11 percent from 2025 to 2035, much faster than the average for all occupations.” The BLS adds that most openings will come from replacement, meaning workers transferring to other occupations or leaving the labor force, not from growth alone. A shortage that is driven by retirements does not fix itself when the economy cools.

Source: BLS Occupational Outlook Handbook, 2025-2035 projections (pages updated August 2026). All three trades are projected to grow much faster than the average occupation.

How much faster is the shortage growing in Florida?

Florida’s projections run well ahead of the nation. The state figures below come from the 2024-2034 projection cycle, so they are compared against the national figures from that same cycle, never against the newer 2025 numbers above.

Sources: O*NET state trends for Florida (HVAC, electricians, plumbers), drawn from Projections Central, and the 2024-2034 BLS national projections. Florida’s HVAC growth rate is more than double the national rate, and its electrician and plumber rates are double or better. In a state that adds households every year and runs air conditioning most of it, that gap shows up as open seats.

Is the 110,000 HVAC technician shortage figure real?

You will see "110,000 unfilled HVAC positions" quoted on almost every contractor blog. It traces back to an industry estimate from around 2022; ServiceTitan’s own January 2026 write-up describes it as roughly four years old, and we could not find a current primary estimate from ACCA or another trade association that replaces it. The number was plausible when published, but it is not 2026 data.

That matters because owners use these figures to make decisions. The federal projections above are current, sourced, and comparable year to year, so they are the better basis for planning. When a vendor leads with a large round shortage number and no date, treat the rest of the pitch with the same caution.

What the shortage looks like inside a shop

Projections describe the market; turnover and time to hire describe your week. The best current turnover figures come from ServiceTitan platform data for the 12 months through January 2026, published in June 2026:

• At 16% turnover, a 20-tech HVAC shop replaces roughly three techs a year just to stand still.
• Randstad’s analysis of more than 150 million postings from 2022 to 2026 found skilled trades take an average of 56 days to hire.
• In ServiceTitan’s 2026 survey of 1,000 residential owners and executives, 60% named labor and overhead costs as their biggest business risk.
• In a Housecall Pro survey of more than 400 trades members reported in January 2025, 86% said a lack of qualified candidates was their biggest hiring challenge.

The turnover and survey figures are vendor data, and ServiceTitan’s customer base skews toward larger, well-run companies, so turnover at a typical independent shop is likely at least this high. That last point is our inference, not a published figure.

Why does the electrician shortage look different?

Electricians carry the most openings of the three trades, about 72,700 a year nationally, and two forces stack on them. Associated Builders and Contractors notes that about one-fifth of electricians are over 55, so retirements are steady, and its chief economist ties surging demand for precision-wiring electricians to data center construction, which competes directly with residential service shops for the same licensed people. Their 21% turnover rate, the highest of the three trades, fits that picture: the people who can do the work have options.

What does the shortage mean for a Tampa Bay shop?

Demand around Tampa Bay keeps compounding even as population growth slows. The Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater metro reached 3,418,895 residents on July 1, 2025 per Census estimates on FRED, a gain of about 0.4% that is slower than recent years but still adds service demand on top of an aging housing stock. To the south, the North Port-Bradenton-Sarasota area ranked fifth of 250 large markets for single-family building permits per capita from June 2025 to June 2026, according to ResiClub as reported by Sarasota Magazine. Every one of those new homes becomes a service customer within a few years.

• Hire before the season, not during it: Florida cooling demand peaks in summer, and the techs worth hiring are busiest and least likely to move then.
• Price the seat from live data: an ad written from last year’s wage loses to shops paying current rates, which our Florida HVAC salary guide breaks down by metro.
• Count the cost of waiting: at 56 days to hire, an empty truck costs more than most placement fees, which the cost-of-vacancy calculator shows on your own numbers.
• Recruit, do not just post: replacement-driven shortages mean the qualified techs mostly already have jobs, so they have to be found and persuaded, the core of how to hire an HVAC tech in Tampa.

Methodology and sources

National figures come from the BLS Occupational Outlook Handbook (2025-2035 projections); Florida figures from O*NET state trends (2024-2034); the construction-wide estimate from Associated Builders and Contractors (January 2026, via EC&M); turnover from ServiceTitan platform data (June 2026); time to hire from Randstad (March 2026, via Facilities Dive); and surveys from ServiceTitan (April 2026) and Housecall Pro (January 2025). Vendor data is labeled as such, projection vintages are never mixed in one comparison, and no figures were averaged across sources.

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